Round of 32 underway | 37-10 (78.7%)
37-10 through 47 games. Outperforming chalk by 6.4%. 8 upsets so far. Florida down 1.2% to 7.9%.
Model Shifts (24h)
Model vs. Market
Expert Pulse
5293 insights · 11 sources
Biggest Movers This Week
Title Favorites
4Duke
1-seed · East · ACC
18.5%
Model odds
Market
+414 · 16.2% implied
Model +2.3%Adj EM
+35.5
Adj OE
127.1
Adj DE
91.6
by Scott Phillips (SB Nation): “That sets up a national championship game that’s a rematch from Duke and Michigan’s fantastic regular season clash that saw the Blue Devils win a...”
Michigan
1-seed · Midwest · Big Ten
19.5%
Model odds
Market
+305 · 20.5% implied
Market +1.0%Adj EM
+36.3
Adj OE
128.8
Adj DE
92.5
By Chip Patterson (CBS): “1 seed Michigan, which faces a Midwest Region that only had two teams picked as the best team on their respective seed line.”
Arizona
1-seed · West · Big 12
18.0%
Model odds
Market
+345 · 18.7% implied
Market +0.7%Adj EM
+35.7
Adj OE
127.3
Adj DE
91.6
Myron Medcalf Mar 21, 2026, 01:00 AM ET (ESPN): “Kansas, at Arizona), the Cougars have played like a national championship contender a year after losing to Florida in the title game.”
Florida
ELIMINATED1-seed · South · SEC
OUT
Model odds
Adj EM
+33.7
Adj OE
126.9
Adj DE
93.2
Jay Bilas Mar 16, 2026, 09:00 AM ET (ESPN): “1 seeds reaching the Final Four, Houston and Florida advancing to the championship game, and the Gators cutting down the nets.”
Final Four Contenders
22Purdue
2-seed · West · Big Ten
9.2%
Model odds
Market
+1325 · 5.8% implied
Model +3.3%Adj EM
+33.0
Adj OE
133.5
Adj DE
100.5
by Scott Phillips (SB Nation): “On the heels of a Big Ten tournament title, Purdue climbed into the two line and gets No.”
Illinois
3-seed · South · Big Ten
8.1%
Model odds
Market
+1450 · 5.4% implied
Model +2.8%Adj EM
+34.2
Adj OE
132.5
Adj DE
98.3
Brad Underwood (Fox): “Illinois' second consecutive loss to UCLA (blowing a 33-10 lead) and Michigan signals concerning lapses in execution and defensive focus that could derail their tournament hopes.”
Houston
2-seed · South · Big 12
7.6%
Model odds
Market
+700 · 10.4% implied
Market +2.8%Adj EM
+33.8
Adj OE
125.6
Adj DE
91.8
by Scott Phillips (SB Nation): “That sets up a nightmare road Elite Eight setting for Florida, with Houston taking down the Gators to reach another Final Four.”
Iowa State
2-seed · Midwest · Big 12
4.1%
Model odds
Market
+1625 · 4.8% implied
Market +0.7%Adj EM
+31.3
Adj OE
124.2
Adj DE
92.9
Austin Curtright USA TODAY NETWORK (USA Today): “The 6-9 senior does a bit of everything for national championship contender Iowa State, averaging 16.6 points with 7.5 rebounds and 5.2 assists per...”
Connecticut
2-seed · East · Big East
1.5%
Model odds
Market
+2500 · 3.2% implied
Market +1.7%Adj EM
+28.1
Adj OE
123.4
Adj DE
95.3
Michigan State
3-seed · East · Big Ten
1.0%
Model odds
Market
+3000 · 2.7% implied
Market +1.7%Adj EM
+27.5
Adj OE
123.6
Adj DE
96.1
by Ricky O'Donnell (SB Nation): “The Big Ten hasn’t won a national championship since 2000 Michigan State, but they’ve had plenty of memorable Final Four teams since.NCAA tournament...”
Arkansas
4-seed · West · SEC
0.4%
Model odds
Market
+4125 · 2.0% implied
Market +1.5%Adj EM
+26.1
Adj OE
128.2
Adj DE
102.1
Associated Press (ESPN): “-- John Calipari told his 17th-ranked Arkansas Razorbacks to use the SEC tournament title game to measure where they are before the NCAA tournament.”
Alabama
4-seed · Midwest · SEC
0.8%
Model odds
Market
+10250 · 0.8% implied
Adj EM
+27.9
Adj OE
130.2
Adj DE
102.3
By Ryan Wooden (CBS): “The Wildcats also won non-conference games against Florida, UCLA, UConn, Auburn and Alabama, establishing themselves as national championship...”
Kansas
ELIMINATED4-seed · East · Big 12
OUT
Model odds
Adj EM
+23.1
Adj OE
117.2
Adj DE
94.1
Myron Medcalf Mar 21, 2026, 01:00 AM ET (ESPN): “Kansas, at Arizona), the Cougars have played like a national championship contender a year after losing to Florida in the title game.”
Louisville
ELIMINATED6-seed · East · ACC
OUT
Model odds
Adj EM
+24.9
Adj OE
123.6
Adj DE
98.7
Craig Meyer USA TODAY NETWORK (USA Today): “Back then: Albrecht and Hancock traded baskets in a frenetic first half between Michigan and Louisville in the 2013 national championship game,...”
Gonzaga
ELIMINATED3-seed · West · WCC
OUT
Model odds
Adj EM
+24.8
Adj OE
119.4
Adj DE
94.6
By Gary Parrish (CBS): “Gonzaga has won 22 West Coast Conference Tournament championships over the years, including 17 of the past 23 titles.”
Virginia
ELIMINATED3-seed · Midwest · ACC
OUT
Model odds
Adj EM
+25.1
Adj OE
122.6
Adj DE
97.5
Kyle Boone (CBS): “Virginia's 51-point output represented their worst performance in 47 games, demonstrating how Duke's elite defense exploited their offensive limitations despite their recent nin...”
Vanderbilt
ELIMINATED5-seed · South · SEC
OUT
Model odds
Adj EM
+27.5
Adj OE
127.8
Adj DE
100.3
By Daniel Kohn (CBS): “The third-seeded Arkansas Razorbacks take on the fourth-seeded Vanderbilt Commodores for the 2026 SEC Tournament championship on Sunday.”
UCLA
ELIMINATED7-seed · East · Big Ten
OUT
Model odds
Adj EM
+22.5
Adj OE
123.9
Adj DE
101.4
Matt Hayes USA TODAY (USA Today): “Only UCLA under legendary coach John Wooden has had multiple back-to-back national championships seasons.”
Wisconsin
ELIMINATED5-seed · West · Big Ten
OUT
Model odds
Adj EM
+24.9
Adj OE
126.9
Adj DE
102.0
by Ricky O'Donnell (SB Nation): “The Wisconsin duo believes it’s the best backcourt in the country, and they proved it in their ridiculous comeback win against an Illini team with...”
St. John's
5-seed · East · Big East
0.6%
Model odds
Market
+3250 · 2.5% implied
Market +1.9%Adj EM
+27.0
Adj OE
120.4
Adj DE
93.4
Isaac Trotter (Locked On CBB): “St. John's suffered a humiliating 72-40 loss to UConn, with the team's shooting and offensive execution completely falling apart. Rick Pitino's refusal to attend the full postga...”
Texas Tech
ELIMINATED5-seed · Midwest · Big 12
OUT
Model odds
Adj EM
+26.2
Adj OE
126.0
Adj DE
99.8
Isaac Trotter (Locked On CBB): “Texas Tech is an elite team capable of making tournament noise despite losing JT Toppin to a season-ending injury. They've beaten four teams that were top-5 at the time of the g...”
Tennessee
6-seed · Midwest · SEC
0.5%
Model odds
Market
+6025 · 1.4% implied
Market +0.9%Adj EM
+26.9
Adj OE
122.1
Adj DE
95.2
Nebraska
4-seed · South · Big Ten
0.2%
Model odds
Market
+5250 · 1.6% implied
Market +1.4%Adj EM
+24.5
Adj OE
117.8
Adj DE
93.3
North Carolina
ELIMINATED6-seed · South · ACC
OUT
Model odds
Adj EM
+20.6
Adj OE
120.7
Adj DE
100.1
David Cobb (CBS): “North Carolina's tournament seeding will be significantly impacted by the selection committee's evaluation of how the team performs without star forward Caleb Wilson for the rem...”
Ohio State
ELIMINATED8-seed · East · Big Ten
OUT
Model odds
Adj EM
+22.9
Adj OE
124.6
Adj DE
101.7
Isaac Trotter (Locked On CBB): “Ohio State's tournament chances have deteriorated significantly after losing at Iowa 74-57, dropping them further down the bubble despite starting the game well with a 14-2 lead...”
Kentucky
ELIMINATED7-seed · Midwest · SEC
OUT
Model odds
Adj EM
+19.8
Adj OE
119.9
Adj DE
100.1
Hansbrough (F68): “Kentucky is in a much better place now than at the start of the season, with players executing their roles better and showing improved effort and fundamentals.”
Sleepers
12Villanova
ELIMINATED8-seed · West · Big East
OUT
Model odds
Adj EM
+18.9
Adj OE
119.9
Adj DE
101.0
Iowa
9-seed · South · Big Ten
0.0%
Model odds
Market
+10500 · 0.8% implied
Market +0.7%Adj EM
+23.3
Adj OE
123.9
Adj DE
100.6
Austin Curtright USA TODAY NETWORK (USA Today): “The 6-9 senior does a bit of everything for national championship contender Iowa State, averaging 16.6 points with 7.5 rebounds and 5.2 assists per...”
BYU
ELIMINATED6-seed · West · Big 12
OUT
Model odds
Adj EM
+19.6
Adj OE
124.2
Adj DE
104.6
By Matt Severance (CBS): “This is really more a fade of BYU, which was a legit national title contender behind superstar freshman AJ Dybantsa, expected to be the top pick in...”
Utah State
ELIMINATED9-seed · West · MWC
OUT
Model odds
Adj EM
+21.2
Adj OE
123.7
Adj DE
102.5
Jeff Borzello (ESPN): “As a program, Utah State has gone to six of the past seven NCAA tournaments and won three Mountain West regular-season championships and three...”
St. Mary's (CA)
ELIMINATED7-seed · South · WCC
OUT
Model odds
Adj EM
+19.9
Adj OE
117.9
Adj DE
98.0
Miami (FLA.)
ELIMINATED7-seed · West · ACC
OUT
Model odds
Adj EM
+19.5
Adj OE
120.8
Adj DE
101.3
Georgia
ELIMINATED8-seed · Midwest · SEC
OUT
Model odds
Adj EM
+18.3
Adj OE
123.8
Adj DE
105.5
Saint Louis
ELIMINATED9-seed · Midwest · A-10
OUT
Model odds
Adj EM
+18.4
Adj OE
120.5
Adj DE
102.1
Santa Clara
ELIMINATED10-seed · Midwest · WCC
OUT
Model odds
Adj EM
+20.4
Adj OE
125.0
Adj DE
104.6
Clemson
ELIMINATED8-seed · South · ACC
OUT
Model odds
Adj EM
+18.4
Adj OE
116.7
Adj DE
98.3
Texas
11-seed · West · SEC
0.0%
Model odds
Market
+23125 · 0.4% implied
Adj EM
+18.6
Adj OE
123.6
Adj DE
105.0
Isaac Trotter (Locked On CBB): “Texas's 84-71 loss at home to number seven Florida is a devastating missed opportunity that significantly hurts their bubble positioning, as they had leads early and were at hal...”
Texas A&M
ELIMINATED10-seed · South · SEC
OUT
Model odds
Adj EM
+18.3
Adj OE
119.6
Adj DE
101.3
The Field
26Missouri
10-seed · West · SEC
0.0%
Model odds
Adj EM
+16.4
Adj OE
119.8
Adj DE
103.4
By Chip Patterson (CBS): “Top team -- Missouri, West Region: At its best, Missouri is a dangerous offensive team capable of stringing together scoring runs and beating some of...”
VCU
ELIMINATED11-seed · South · A-10
OUT
Model odds
Adj EM
+16.3
Adj OE
118.5
Adj DE
102.2
TCU
ELIMINATED9-seed · East · Big 12
OUT
Model odds
Adj EM
+15.3
Adj OE
114.6
Adj DE
99.3
South Florida
ELIMINATED11-seed · East · AAC
OUT
Model odds
Adj EM
+15.5
Adj OE
116.9
Adj DE
101.4
Central Florida
ELIMINATED10-seed · East · Big 12
OUT
Model odds
Adj EM
+13.8
Adj OE
119.5
Adj DE
105.7
Akron
ELIMINATED12-seed · Midwest · MAC
OUT
Model odds
Adj EM
+11.4
Adj OE
117.8
Adj DE
106.4
High Point
ELIMINATED12-seed · West · Big South
OUT
Model odds
Adj EM
+9.7
Adj OE
116.7
Adj DE
107.0
McNeese
ELIMINATED12-seed · South · Southland
OUT
Model odds
Adj EM
+11.6
Adj OE
113.7
Adj DE
102.1
Northern Iowa
ELIMINATED12-seed · East · MVC
OUT
Model odds
Adj EM
+10.2
Adj OE
109.6
Adj DE
99.4
Miami (Ohio)
ELIMINATED11-seed · Midwest · MAC
OUT
Model odds
Adj EM
+9.2
Adj OE
117.0
Adj DE
107.8
ESPN Research (ESPN): “Miami (Ohio)'s unbeaten 29-0 record and composure in tight games positions them as a legitimate national championship threat, having joined an elite group of only four Division ...”
Hofstra
ELIMINATED13-seed · Midwest · CAA
OUT
Model odds
Adj EM
+8.6
Adj OE
113.4
Adj DE
104.8
North Dakota State
ELIMINATED14-seed · East · Summit
OUT
Model odds
Adj EM
+4.5
Adj OE
111.1
Adj DE
106.6
California Baptist
ELIMINATED13-seed · East · WAC
OUT
Model odds
Adj EM
+6.4
Adj OE
107.0
Adj DE
100.6
Hawaii
ELIMINATED13-seed · West · Big West
OUT
Model odds
Adj EM
+4.2
Adj OE
106.8
Adj DE
102.6
Wright State
ELIMINATED14-seed · Midwest · Horizon
OUT
Model odds
Adj EM
+4.2
Adj OE
113.3
Adj DE
109.1
Troy
ELIMINATED13-seed · South · Sun Belt
OUT
Model odds
Adj EM
+1.0
Adj OE
110.2
Adj DE
109.2
Kennesaw State
ELIMINATED14-seed · West · ASUN
OUT
Model odds
Adj EM
+2.0
Adj OE
111.0
Adj DE
109.0
Furman
ELIMINATED15-seed · East · SoCon
OUT
Model odds
Adj EM
-1.0
Adj OE
108.2
Adj DE
109.2
Penn
ELIMINATED14-seed · South · Ivy
OUT
Model odds
Adj EM
+1.5
Adj OE
107.7
Adj DE
106.2
Idaho
ELIMINATED15-seed · South · Big Sky
OUT
Model odds
Adj EM
+1.6
Adj OE
108.0
Adj DE
106.4
Siena
ELIMINATED16-seed · East · MAAC
OUT
Model odds
Adj EM
+0.2
Adj OE
108.4
Adj DE
108.2
Queens
ELIMINATED15-seed · West · ASUN
OUT
Model odds
Adj EM
-2.3
Adj OE
115.2
Adj DE
117.5
Howard
ELIMINATED16-seed · Midwest · MEAC
OUT
Model odds
Adj EM
-1.0
Adj OE
106.3
Adj DE
107.3
Tennessee State
ELIMINATED15-seed · Midwest · OVC
OUT
Model odds
Adj EM
-4.1
Adj OE
108.1
Adj DE
112.2
Long Island
ELIMINATED16-seed · West · NEC
OUT
Model odds
Adj EM
-6.1
Adj OE
103.9
Adj DE
110.0
Prairie View A&M
ELIMINATED16-seed · South · SWAC
OUT
Model odds
Adj EM
-9.7
Adj OE
101.6
Adj DE
111.3